Plasma biomarkers and incident clinical stage progression in the specialized memory clinic: a longitudinal study

INTRODUCTION: The utility of blood-based Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarkers in predicting clinical trajectories remains uncertain. METHODS: We assessed the diagnostic and prognostic performance of p-tau181, p-tau217, GFAP, and NfL in a large memory-clinic cohort (n=3,645) with comprehensive baseline clinical evaluation and annual follow-up for up to three decades. RESULTS: P-tau217, p-tau181 and GFAP were associated with amyloid-beta (A{beta}) pathology, while all biomarkers were elevated in AD and all-cause dementia. P-tau217 significantly outperformed others in detecting A{beta} pathology and clinical AD but performed similarly to NfL and GFAP for all-cause dementia. Prognostically, p-tau217 demonstrated the strongest association with cognitive decline, followed by GFAP and NfL, and best predicted progression status at 5- and 10-year intervals. All biomarkers provided added prognostic value beyond demographic and genetic covariates. DISCUSSION: These findings support plasma biomarkers for disease identification and risk stratification while underscoring the need for population-specific approaches.