Immunogenicity and vaccine effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in people on immunosuppressive therapies

Neutralizing antibodies are a correlate of protection (CoP) of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine efficacy. However, data informing CoPs often explicitly exclude people on immunosuppressive therapies who are at an increased risk of symptomatic and severe COVID-19, delayed viral clearance, and death. Investigating the relationship between antibodies and protection for people on immunosuppressive therapies could provide insights into mechanisms of protection. We performed a systematic search to identify studies reporting SARS-CoV-2 binding antibody levels after mRNA vaccination in people with hematological malignancies, neurological disorders, rheumatic diseases, and mixed immune-mediated inflammatory disorders (IMIDs) on immunosuppressive therapies including B-cell depletion, JAK inhibitors, and S1P inhibitors, as well as healthy controls. Binding antibody levels varied between cohorts receiving different immunosuppressive treatments. Compared to healthy controls the lowest antibody levels were observed in subjects treated with B-cell depletion (54.5-fold reduction, 95% CI: 34.5-86.2) and S1P inhibitors (24.8-fold reduction, 95% CI: 13.2-46.7). To assess the association between antibody level and protection, we used data from a previous study of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in people with the same underlying conditions. We linked vaccine effectiveness estimates with the predicted antibody level in people on immunosuppressive therapies (using antibody data including this meta-analysis of binding antibody levels). Predicted neutralizing antibody levels were correlated with vaccine effectiveness both for infection and hospitalization (p<0.0001 and p<0.0001, respectively). However, we found that for any given antibody level, people who are immunosuppressed had lower protection against infection and hospitalization than a healthy population.