Ultrasound Detection of Early Callus Formation in Proximal Humerus Fractures: Protocol for a Pilot and Prospective Cohort Study

Abstract Introduction: Proximal humerus fractures account for approximately 5-6% of all adult fractures and are primarily managed nonoperatively. Healing is conventionally monitored with radiographs, with radiopaque callus formation indicating healing. Visible radiographic callus appears weeks after biological union begins. Ultrasound provides a dynamic, radiation-free, and cost-effective method that can detect early callus formation before x-ray visibility. Although ultrasound has demonstrated utility for fracture healing in the clavicle and humeral shaft, its role in proximal humerus fractures remains unclear. Methods: This single-centre prospective study will be conducted in two phases. The pilot phase will measure inter-rater reliability for ultrasound detection of early callus formation at 2 and 4 weeks post-injury. Ten patients with proximal humerus fractures treated nonoperatively will undergo standardized anterior and lateral scans. Each patient will generate four saved images (short- and long-axis views), producing forty anonymized images independently reviewed by two raters. The prospective cohort phase will recruit approximately thirty additional patients. Results: Reliability will be quantified using Cohens kappa. A power calculation will be performed after pilot analysis. Results from the prospective cohort phase will help determine the association and predictive value of early ultrasound-detected bridging callus for radiographic and clinical union at three and six months. Patient reported outcome measures will be assessed using the Quick Disabilities of Arm, Shoulder and Hand (QuickDASH) questionnaire. Discussion: This study will develop and validate a standardized ultrasound protocol for assessing early fracture healing in proximal humerus fractures. By establishing both inter-rater reliability and predictive value, the findings may support ultrasound as a reproducible, radiation-free adjunct to conventional imaging and enable earlier identification of union status.