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Mathematical models for influenza vaccination in homeless hostels

Xu, J.; Hutchinson, N.; House, T.; Pellis, L.; Hayward, A.; Hall, I.

2026-07-14 epidemiology
10.64898/2026.07.10.26357528 medRxiv
Show abstract

The aim of this paper is to model homeless accommodation settings to investigate how vaccination mitigates the outbreaks, highlighting the importance of vaccination in vulnerable settings. We estimate the daily per capita contact rate with wider community, the internal transmission rate, and the achieved vaccine coverage. We present stochastic simulation of the final size of disease outbreaks given choices of internal and external transmission. We conclude that vaccine that has effect in reducing transmission will mitigate the outbreak in homeless hostels but it will have better results when the household population has large vaccination coverage, which may lead to more cost from the health economic perspective.

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