Structural Racism, Neighborhood Opportunity, and Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Homicide Risk

Homicide is a leading cause of preventable death in the United States and disproportionately affects Black and Indigenous communities. Structural racism and neighborhood disinvestment are central drivers of these disparities, yet national evidence on whether the association between neighborhood opportunity and homicide risk varies by race/ethnicity remains limited. Using 2020 data from the restricted-use National Violent Death Reporting System linked to Child Opportunity Index (COI 3.0) scores and Census population denominators across 30,077 ZIP codes in 48 states, we estimated age-adjusted log-linked generalized linear models to examine racial/ethnic disparities in homicide rates and their interaction with neighborhood opportunity. Black men experienced homicide rates nearly 20 times those of White men; Indigenous men experienced rates approximately 6 times higher. Higher neighborhood opportunity was independently associated with lower homicide risk across all groups and explained 43-59% of excess risk for Black and Indigenous individuals. Crucially, the association between neighborhood opportunity and homicide was nonlinear and significantly heterogeneous by race/ethnicity, with the steepest rate reductions occurring at the lowest opportunity levels for Black and Indigenous men. These findings suggest that place-based investments in severely deprived communities may yield the greatest reductions in homicide and racial/ethnic health inequities.