Reducing placebo response in clinical trials of agitation in Alzheimer's disease

High placebo response is an obstacle in developing drugs to treat agitation in Alzheimer's disease (AAD), a prevalent and burdensome symptom. However, it has proved challenging to develop actionable models of placebo response that 1) can be applied prospectively, requiring only information available at screening or baseline, 2) yield strategies for reducing placebo response without equally depressing drug response, and 3) show generalizability across trials. Here, we first investigated placebo response in AAD at the trial level using meta-regression applied to 23 clinical trials. Meta-regression identified several factors associated with increased placebo response, but most of these factors were non-specific such that they predicted improvements in drug response as well. We therefore turned to individual level clinical trial datasets and applied causal modeling to predict which participants would have high placebo response relative to predicted drug response. We successfully built and validated the causal model across two independent clinical trials of risperidone and haloperidol at the level of individual patients (ability to predict subsequent improvement on drug or placebo). Crucially, we also found efficacy improvements in the overall trial through in silico exclusion/screen failing of high placebo-predicted subjects. We further characterized features most associated with placebo response to improve explainability and, lastly, validated the effect of these features at the trial level in clinical trials of galantamine, an acetylcholinesterase inhibitor (hence in a different class of drugs than those in the other two trials used). Taken together, we have developed and applied a causal modeling framework for reducing placebo response and increasing trial-level efficacy in neuropsychiatry clinical trials using historical trial datasets.