Early assessment of potential airline-mediated importation risk during the 2026 DRC-Uganda Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak
Kinoshita, R.; Suzuki, M.; Yoneoka, D.
Show abstract
During the 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, we projected potential airline-mediated importation risk using contemporary airline network and an externally calibrated Ebola importation hazard. Effective-distance analyses identified major international hub countries, including Belgium, France, South Africa, Kenya, and the United Arab Emirates, as higher-probability gateways within 30 days. These early projections provide a reproducible framework for real-time international situational awareness, while emphasizing that importation risk does not imply local transmission risk.
Matching journals
The top 3 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
- Reducing travel-related SARS-CoV-2 transmission with layered mitigation measures: Symptom monitoring, quarantine, and testing 92%
- Quantifying the dynamics of COVID-19 burden and impact of interventions in Java, Indonesia 91%
- Evaluating the COVID-19 responses of Belgium, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom, February-June 2020: A counterfactual modelling study 90%
Similar papers in this journal
- Assessing early detection ability through spatial arrangements in environmental surveillance for poliovirus: a simulation-based study 92%
- Threshold analyses on rates of testing, transmission, and contact for COVID-19 control in a university setting 92%
- Modeling the effect of vaccination strategies in an Excel spreadsheet: The rate of vaccination, and not only the vaccination coverage, is a determinant for containing COVID-19 in urban areas 92%
Similar papers in this journal
- Attribution of invasive group A streptococcal infections to varicella and respiratory virus circulation, the Netherlands, 2010-2023 91%
- Estimating the effect of mobility on SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the first and second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland: a population-based study 90%
- Strategies to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 re-introduction from international travellers 90%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.