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Early assessment of potential airline-mediated importation risk during the 2026 DRC-Uganda Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak

Kinoshita, R.; Suzuki, M.; Yoneoka, D.

2026-06-09 public and global health
10.64898/2026.06.01.26354569 medRxiv
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During the 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, we projected potential airline-mediated importation risk using contemporary airline network and an externally calibrated Ebola importation hazard. Effective-distance analyses identified major international hub countries, including Belgium, France, South Africa, Kenya, and the United Arab Emirates, as higher-probability gateways within 30 days. These early projections provide a reproducible framework for real-time international situational awareness, while emphasizing that importation risk does not imply local transmission risk.

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