Evolving Epidemiology of Stroke in India: Burden, Inequalities, and Risk Factors from 1990 to 2023 with Projections to 2035

Background:Stroke continues to be one of the major causes of death and long-term disability worldwide, with a greater impact in low-and middle-income countries. In India, there is limited evidence examining stroke burden and its changes over time and across regions. Therefore, we aimed to assess the burden of stroke in India from 1990 to 2023 using the latest data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, along with projections up to 2035. Methods:We used estimates from the GBD 2023 study to examine stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in India from 1990 to 2023. Age-standardized rates were analyzed to understand how these measures have changed over time. We also conducted state-level analyses to explore regional differences in stroke burden. The contributions of all major modifiable risk factors were assessed using population-attributable fractions. In addition, we projected future trends in stroke burden up to 2035. Results:From 1990-2023, the percentage change in overall stroke burden in India showed minimal variation across key indicators. Incidence remained largely stable (0.00%[-0.04 to 0.05]), while prevalence showed a slight increase(0.06%[0.03 to 0.10]). Mortality (-0.11%[-0.36 to 0.20]) and DALYs (-0.17%[-0.38 to 0.12]) demonstrated modest declines over the study period. Notable regional disparities were evident, with states such as Chhattisgarh, Assam, and Jharkhand bearing the highest burden. High systolic blood pressure remained the leading risk factor in 2023, contributing the largest share of stroke-related deaths, followed by dietary risks, air pollution, tobacco use, and high body mass index. Future projections indicate that by 2035, stroke prevalence is likely to increase, while incidence, mortality, and DALYs are expected to show only modest changes. Conclusions: Stroke remains a major and growing public health challenge in India with a continuing increase in burden despite slight improvements in age-standardized rates over time. Addressing this challenge will require stronger prevention efforts, better control of key risk factors, and focused strategies to reduce regional disparities in stroke burden nationwide.