Age at Peak Height Velocity: A Systematic Review with Preliminary Quantitative Synthesis of Secular Trends

Background: Peak height velocity (PHV) is a critical indicator of pubertal growth timing and is widely used in orthodontics to determine optimal timing for growth modification interventions. Secular trends toward earlier maturation have been reported, but a quantitative synthesis of PHV age reduction across generations is lacking. Objective: To systematically review and quantitatively synthesize evidence for secular trends in age at PHV and to estimate the pooled mean difference in PHV age between historical and contemporary cohorts. Methods: A systematic search was conducted in PubMed and Google Scholar from January 1990 to December 2021. The Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ) was also searched but yielded no eligible studies due to the specificity of the search string. Studies were included if they reported age at PHV in two or more birth cohorts separated by at least 20 years, used objective methods to determine PHV (longitudinal growth data with curve fitting), and reported means with standard deviations or standard errors. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. A random-effects quantitative synthesis (meta-analytic approach) was performed to calculate the pooled mean difference in PHV age between historical and contemporary cohorts. Between-study variance (tau-squared) was estimated using the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) method. Heterogeneity was assessed using I-squared statistics. Given the limited number of eligible studies, findings should be interpreted as preliminary. Results: Two high-quality longitudinal studies met inclusion criteria, comprising 171 participants from historical cohorts (1969-1973) and 71 participants from contemporary cohorts (1996-2000). The pooled mean difference in PHV age was -0.48 years (95% CI: -0.72 to -0.24, P < 0.001), indicating that contemporary children reach PHV approximately 0.5 years earlier than their historical counterparts. PHV velocity showed a pooled increase of 0.71 cm/year (95% CI: 0.48 to 0.94, P < 0.001). Heterogeneity was low (I-squared = 0% for both analyses). Both studies were rated as low risk of bias. These findings are based on a limited number of studies and should be interpreted as preliminary. Conclusions: This preliminary quantitative synthesis provides evidence of a secular decline in age at peak height velocity of approximately 0.5 years in contemporary children compared to historical cohorts, accompanied by an increase in growth velocity. These findings suggest that orthodontic growth modification strategies may need to be initiated earlier than traditionally recommended. However, given the limited evidence base, results should be interpreted with caution and require confirmation in large-scale longitudinal studies.