Gender-Specific Osteoporosis Risk Prediction Using Longitudinal Clinical Data and Machine Learning

Osteoporosis is a silent yet debilitating disease that often remains undetected until fractures occur. While early prediction is crucial, most studies combine male and female datasets to train a single model, introducing bias since osteoporosis risk and progression differ by gender. This study aims to develop gender-specific machine learning models that leverage longitudinal data to predict osteoporosis risk, providing tailored insights for men and women. Data were obtained from two large longitudinal cohorts: the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) for women and the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study (MrOS) for men. Multiple ML algorithms were trained and evaluated for each sex, with model performance assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). Among the tested models, the XGBoost model demonstrated the best performance for women, achieving an AUC-ROC of 0.93 using SOF data. For men, the Random Forest model achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.89 using MrOS data. Feature importance analysis identified sex-specific osteoporosis risk factors, underscoring the need for tailored prediction and management. By revealing male and female risk factors and reducing bias from combined datasets, the work advances personalized care and supports earlier, effective clinical intervention to prevent fractures and improve health outcomes.