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Using an evolutionary epidemiological model of pandemics to estimate the infection fatality ratio for humans infected with avian influenza viruses

2026-01-22 epidemiology Title + abstract only
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The risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza infection to humans is challenging to estimate because many human avian influenza virus (AIV) infections are undetected as they may be asymptomatic, symptomatic but not tested, and as contact tracing is difficult because human-to-human spread is rare. We derive equations that consider the evolutionary mechanisms that give rise to pandemics and are parameterized to be consistent with records of past pandemics. We estimate that thousands of human AIV i...

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