A stochastic model for Lassa fever infection

This paper looked at the exploration of Lassa fever transmission dynamics through stochastic models which yielded valuable insights into the interplay of factors influencing the probability of extinction and persistence of the virus within a population. By embracing the inherent randomness and variability in the system, the model provided a more realistic representation of the complex ecological and epidemiological dynamics of Lassa fever. We developed the deterministic model using a system of ordinary differential equations and the stochastic model using the Continuous Time Markov Chain. The probability of extinction and persistence underscored the need for a proactive and flexible approach to public health management. Our study revealed that introducing Lassa virus at the onset of an epidemic through various routes affects the likelihood of pathogen extinction. The presence of multiple infection routes increased the probability of pathogen persistence, highlighting complex transmission dynamics. Variations in contact rates, particularly between susceptible rodents and the environment community pathogen load, play a crucial role in influencing pathogen dynamics. This interconnected nature of transmission pathways underscores the factors governing Lassa virus persistence or extinction in a population, providing valuable insights for targeted management and control strategies for Lassa fever.