Transition from non-diabetes to diabetes: a population-based longitudinal study in Vietnamese individuals

ObjectiveThis study sought to determine the incidence of T2DM and identify risk factors among a Vietnamese urban cohort without previous T2DM diagnoses to support early intervention. MethodsThis population-based prospective study included 1971 individuals (1368 women) free of T2DM at baseline. Participants were re-assessed after a median follow-up of 2.0 years. Glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels were measured using high-pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC) analyzers (ADAMS A1c HA-8160, Arkray, Kyoto, Japan). T2DM was defined as an HbA1c value [≥] 6.5%, while prediabetes was defined as an HbA1c value between 5.7% and 6.4%. Incident T2DM was identified as newly developed diabetes from a non-diabetic status. The association between potential risk factors and T2DM was analyzed using logistic regression. ResultsAt baseline, 1137 participants (58%) were classified as Normal and 834 (42%) as Pre-diabetes. Over the follow-up, 16% of initially normal individuals progressed to prediabetes, and 10% of those with prediabetes progressed to diabetes. Overall, 4.3% transitioned to diabetes. Advancing age (OR per year: 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.06) and higher BMI (OR per unit: 1.20; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.27) were significantly associated with an increased risk of developing T2DM. A predictive model incorporating age, body mass index (BMI), and baseline HbA1c resulted in an area under the ROC curve of 0.90. ConclusionsThe study revealed a notable 4.3% incidence of T2DM over two years among Vietnamese adults. Significant predictors included age and BMI, underscoring the need for targeted preventive measures focusing on weight management and monitoring in high-risk groups. O_TBL View this table: org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@b0af83org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1d2ce1eorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@da5107org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@fdbb9forg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@28eb36_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_TBL O_FLOATNOTable 4.C_FLOATNO O_TABLECAPTIONRisk factors for predicting the risk of progression to type 2 diabetes C_TABLECAPTION C_TBL O_TBL View this table: org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@6a39ccorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1f8a538org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1271b36org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@6ba2edorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@959ac0_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_TBL O_FLOATNOTable 3.C_FLOATNO O_TABLECAPTIONIncidence of type 2 diabetes by age group C_TABLECAPTION C_TBL