Climatic Influence on COVID-19: Investigating the Role of Temperature and Humidity in the Spread of the Omicron Variant
Lopez, L.; Alfaro Checa, B.; Rodo, X.
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Understanding how climate modulates infectious disease dynamics is critical for anticipating epidemic patterns. This study examines the association between climatological variables--specifically temperature and relative humidity--and the incidence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) during its global wave (2021-2022). Using global epidemiological and climate data, we applied Scale-Dependent Correlation (SDC) analysis to detect transient, scale-specific associations across regions and periods. We identified consistent negative correlations between incidence and both temperature and humidity, especially in mid-latitudes during colder months. These findings were compared with predictions from stochastic population-based compartmental models incorporating climate-dependent transmission parameters. Among the tested formulations, the temperature-based model achieved the best fit to observed case trajectories. Our results highlight a robust climatological influence on Omicron transmission dynamics and underscore the importance of integrating climate indicators into epidemic modeling and preparedness strategies.
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