Global Catastrophic Risks and Capacity to Manufacture Key Pharmaceuticals: Case Study for a Highly Trade-Dependent Nation

IntroductionHuman civilisation faces such global catastrophic risks as a: nuclear war, bioengineered pandemic, major solar storm, and volcanic winter. For some of these catastrophes, island nations may have relative survival potential but any collapse in international trade could also end critical imported goods such as pharmaceuticals. We aimed to explore the latter using the case study country of Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ). MethodsWe identified the 10 most extensively prescribed pharmaceuticals in NZ that are used for acute treatment (by annual prescription numbers). Based on modern synthesis pathways for these pharmaceuticals in the literature, we identified ingredients and then determined if these ingredients were currently produced in NZ. ResultsThe results suggest that none of these 10 pharmaceuticals could be produced in NZ in a trade-ending catastrophe: paracetamol, omeprazole, amoxicillin, ibuprofen, aspirin, metoprolol succinate, salbutamol, prednisone, cetirizine hydrochloride, and amlodipine. This is primarily because NZ does not refine petrochemicals. For seven of these 10 pharmaceuticals the relevant catalysts or other specific chemical ingredients are also not mined or otherwise produced in NZ. There may, however, be some scope for the post-catastrophe scavenging of minerals for producing some catalysts. ConclusionsThis preliminary analysis suggests that none of the 10 most extensively prescribed pharmaceuticals used for acute treatments could be manufactured in this case study country after a trade-ending global catastrophe. To address this and other domains lacking in resiliency (eg, liquid fuel supply), a research programme for building shared resiliency with other neighbouring nations (eg, Australia) could be considered.