The utility of infectious disease modelling in informing policy for outbreak response: a scoping review

Background and objectivesInfectious disease modelling plays a critical role in guiding policy during outbreaks. However, ongoing debates over the utility of these models highlight the need for a deeper understanding of their role in policymaking. In this scoping review we sought to assess how infectious disease modelling informs policy, focusing on challenges and facilitators of translating modelling insights into actionable policies. MethodsWe searched the Ovid database to identify modelling studies that included an assessment of utility in informing policy and decision-making from January 2019 onwards. We further identified studies based on expert judgement. Results were analysed descriptively. The study was registered on the Open Science Framework platform. ResultsOut of 4007 screened and 12 additionally suggested studies, a total of 33 studies were selected for our review. None of the included articles provided objective assessments of utility but rather reflected subjectively on modelling efforts and highlighted individual key aspects for utility. 27 of the included articles considered the COVID-19 pandemic and 25 of the articles were from high-income countries. Most modelling efforts aimed to forecast outbreaks and evaluate mitigation strategies. Participatory stakeholder engagement and collaboration between academia, policy, and non-governmental organizations were identified as key facilitators of the modelling-to-policy pathway. However, barriers such as data inconsistencies and quality, uncoordinated decision-making, limited funding and misinterpretation of uncertainties hindered effective use of modelling in decision-making. ConclusionWhile our review identifies crucial facilitators and barriers for the modelling-to-policy pathway, the lack of rigorous assessments of the utility of modelling for policy highlights the need to systematically evaluate the impact of infectious disease modelling on policy in future.