Optimal timing of booster doses in a highly vaccinated population with minimal natural exposure to COVID-19
Conway, E.; Walker, C.; Lydeamore, M.; Golding, N.; Ryan, G.; Mavec, D.; Oates, J.; Kabashima, G.; Price, D. J.; Shearer, F.; Cromer, D.; Davenport, M. P.; McCaw, J.; Eriksson, E. M.; Hodgkin, P. D.; Wu, L.; Le, T. P.; Baker, C. M.; Mueller, I.; McVernon, J.
Show abstract
Population-level waning of protection following immunising exposures is an important determinant of susceptibility to COVID-19 outbreaks. This work outlines an individual-based model (IBM) for the transmission and clinical impact of SARS-CoV-2 that explicitly represents the immunological response to vaccination and infection of each individual. The IBM evaluates waning of immunity to inform risk of infection and related clinical outcomes across a large freely mixing population over time by age and prior exposure status. Modelling immunological responses allows us to investigate the likely impact of immune escape variants based on the landscape in which they emerge. The model described in this paper was motivated by the need to anticipate health and societal impacts of COVID-19 in Australia following emergence of the Omicron variant, in the context of high national vaccine uptake but low infection exposure. It provides a flexible framework for modelling policy-relevant scenarios to inform preparedness and response actions as immunity in a population changes through time.
Matching journals
The top 5 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- Epidemiological and health economic implications of symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens: A mathematical modelling investigation 97%
- The importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout 97%
- When should lockdown be implemented? Devising cost-effective strategies for managing epidemics amid vaccine uncertainty 96%
Similar papers in this journal
- Adaptive vaccination may be needed to eliminate COVID-19: Results from a runtime-alterable strain-drift and waning-immunity model 96%
- A novel, scenario-based approach to comparing non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies across nations 96%
- Mechanistic models of humoral kinetics following COVID-19 vaccination 96%
Similar papers in this journal
- Unifying human infectious disease models and real-time awareness of population- and subpopulation-level intervention effectiveness 97%
- Pharmaceutical and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions for Controlling the COVID-19 Pandemic 97%
- Vaccine escape in a heterogeneous population: insights for SARS-CoV-2 from a simple model 97%
Similar papers in this journal
- Predicting immune protection against outcomes of infectious disease from population-level effectiveness data with application to COVID-19 97%
- Value of information dynamics in Disease X vaccine clinical trials 96%
- Exploring the role of mass immunisation in influenza pandemic preparedness: a modelling study for the UK context 96%
Similar papers in this journal
- Estimating measures to reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia to guide a ‘National Plan’ to reopening 97%
- The COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Switzerland and its impact on disease spread 96%
- Modeling the early phase of the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic using a stochastic compartmental model and studying its implied future trajectories 96%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.