AI-enabled Left Atrial Volumetry in Cardiac CT Scans Improves CHARGE-AF and Outperforms NT-ProBNP for Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation in Asymptomatic Individuals: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BackgroundCoronary artery calcium (CAC) scans contain actionable information beyond CAC scores that is not currently reported. MethodsWe have applied artificial intelligence-enabled automated cardiac chambers volumetry to CAC scans (AI-CAC), taking on average 21 seconds per CAC scan, to 5535 asymptomatic individuals (52.2% women, ages 45-84) that were previously obtained for CAC scoring in the baseline examination (2000-2002) of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). We used the 5-year outcomes data for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and compared the time-dependent AUC of AI-CAC LA volume with known predictors of AF, the CHARGE-AF Risk Score and NT-proBNP (BNP). The mean follow-up time to an AF event was 2.9{+/-}1.4 years. ResultsAt 1,2,3,4, and 5 years follow-up 36, 77, 123, 182, and 236 cases of AF were identified, respectively. The AUC for AI-CAC LA volume was significantly higher than CHARGE-AF or BNP at year 1 (0.836, 0.742, 0.742), year 2 (0.842, 0.807,0.772), and year 3 (0.811, 0.785, 0.745) (p<0.02), but similar for year 4 (0.785, 0.769, 0.725) and year 5 (0.781, 0.767, 0.734) respectively (p>0.05). AI-CAC LA volume significantly improved the continuous Net Reclassification Index for prediction of AF over years 1-5 when added to CAC score (0.74, 0.49, 0.53, 0.39, 0.44), CHARGE-AF Risk Score (0.60, 0.28, 0.32, 0.19, 0.24), and BNP (0.68, 0.44, 0.42, 0.30, 0.37) respectively (p<0.01). ConclusionAI-CAC LA volume enabled prediction of AF as early as one year and significantly improved on risk classification of CHARGE-AF Risk Score and BNP.