Inflammatory bowel disease burden in Asia from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2040

BackgroundWhile the incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) has stabilized in Western countries since 1990, it is experiencing an upward trend in newly industrializing countries. The Asian region encompasses a multitude of developing countries at varying stages of IBD progression. Therefore, comprehending the current epidemiological characteristics of the disease in this region becomes imperative, enabling countries and locales in Asia to proactively address the evolving IBD burden in the upcoming several decades. MethodsWe analyze variation trends in the burden of IBD in Asia from 1990 to 2019, employing data and methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), and provide projections for future changes in IBD incidence in Asia over the next 20 years. ResultsIn 2019, the number of incidence cases of IBD in Asia was 145,561 (95% UI 124,960-170,895), the total number of prevalence cases reached nearly 2 million (95% UI 1.71-2.32), and 13,957 (95% UI 11,898-16,021) patients died of IBD. Meanwhile, the total years lived with disability (YLDs) attributed to IBD amounted to 299,663 (95% UI 198,365-418,635), while the total disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) rose to 649,760 (95% UI 530,395-783,181). The total number of incidence cases in Asia is projected to reach 179,756 in 2040, with an age-standardized incidence rate of 2.92 per 100,000 population. ConclusionsThe increase in the overall burden of IBD in Asia is primarily driven by population growth and aging, with both incidence and DALYs continuing to rise in most countries. It is imperative for each country to adapt its measures to local conditions, improve prevailing healthcare service patterns, and draw insights from the frontier countries to respond to the evolving epidemic characteristics of IBD.