Quantitative prediction of disinfectant tolerance in Listeria monocytogenes using whole genome sequencing and machine learning

Listeria monocytogenes is a potentially severe disease-causing bacteria mainly transmitted through food. This pathogen is of great concern for public health and the food industry in particular. Many countries have implemented thorough regulations, and some have even set zero-tolerance thresholds for particular food products to minimise the risk of L. monocytogenes outbreaks. This emphasises that proper sanitation of food processing plants is of utmost importance. Consequently in recent years, there has been an increased interest in L. monocytogenes tolerance to disinfectants used in the food industry. Even though many studies are focusing on laboratory quantification of L. monocytogenes tolerance, the possibility of predictive models remains poorly studied. Within this study, we explore the prediction of tolerance and minimum inhibitory concentrations (MIC) using whole genome sequencing (WGS) and machine learning (ML). We used WGS data and MIC values to quaternary ammonium compound (QAC) disinfectants from 1649 L. monocytogenes isolates to train different ML predictors. Our study shows promising results for predicting tolerance to QAC disinfectants using WGS and machine learning. We were able to train high-performing ML classifiers to predict tolerance with balanced accuracy scores up to 0.97{+/-}0.02. For the prediction of MIC values, we were able to train ML regressors with mean squared error as low as 0.07{+/-}0.02. We also identified several new genes related to cell wall anchor domains, plasmids, and phages, putatively associated with disinfectant tolerance in L. monocytogenes. The findings of this study are a first step towards prediction of L. monocytogenes tolerance to QAC disinfectants used in the food industry. In the future, predictive models might be used to monitor disinfectant tolerance in food production and might support the conceptualisation of more nuanced sanitation programs. AUTHOR SUMMARYMicrobial contamination challenges food safety by potentially transmitting harmful microbes such as bacteria to consumers. Listeria monocytogenes is an example of such a bacteria, which is primarily transmitted through food and can cause severe diseases in at-risk groups. Fortunately, strict food safety regulations and stringent cleaning protocols are in place to prevent the transmission of Listeria monocytogenes. However, in recent years, there has been an increase in tolerance towards disinfectants used in the food industry, which can reduce their effectiveness. In this study, we used genome sequencing and phenotypic data to train machine learning models that can accurately predict whether individual Listeria monocytogenes isolates are tolerant to selected disinfectants. We were able to train models that are not only able to distinguish sensitive/tolerant isolates but also can predict different degrees of tolerance to disinfectants. Further, we were able to report a set of genes that were important for the machine learning prediction and could give information about possible tolerance mechanisms. In the future, similar predictive models might be used to guide cleaning and disinfection protocols to facilitate maximum effectiveness.