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Unraveling the role of rise in temperature on the emergence of antimicrobial resistance

Goswami, A.; Morris, J.

2023-09-08 epidemiology
10.1101/2023.09.06.23295147 medRxiv
Show abstract

The ability of bacteria to resist the effects of antibiotics, or antimicrobial resistance (AMR), is a growing risk to world health, making it more challenging to combat infectious health problems. The growth rate of bacteria is significantly influenced by temperature, particularly temperatures between 35 and 37{degrees}C, often considered the most suitable for the spread of human illnesses. Knowing that a rise in temperature influences bacterial growth rate, contributing to a higher infection rate, it is imperative to unravel and comprehend the association between climate change and the emergence of AMR. We hypothesized that rising temperatures could exacerbate the emergence of AMR in opportunistic and pathogenic bacteria. To test our hypothesis, we investigated the global distribution of AMR and the correlation between AMR and socioeconomic factors, climate change, and air quality in the United States. The study found high resistance rates to common infections such as Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Vancomycin-resistant enterococcus (VRE) infections are prevalent in many countries. In the United States, MRSA-AMR was more common in low-income states with increased poverty rates and poor air quality. The study also found a positive correlation between the rise in temperature over the past 10 years and AMR bacterial infections. The investigation concluded that socioeconomic factors, climate change, and race collectively impact the prevalence of AMR infections. The probability of AMR infection upsurging in the next decade was highest within states with more frequent rises in temperature over the last 10 years. The model predicted that states with at least 1 {degrees}C rise in temperature over the previous 10 years are expected to experience a surge in AMR bacterial infections in coming years. Though the statistical details might vary depending on the data collected in future, the correlation between climate change and the emergence of AMR in bacterial infection is alarming. The study indicates that climate change has an essential, largely unrecognized influence on AMR bacterial infections that warrants additional research. It implies that comprehensive and integrated strategies are needed to address the AMR and climate change challenges.

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