Contrasting Patterns of Pierce's Disease Risk in European Vineyards Under Global Warming
Gimenez-Romero, A.; Iturbide, M.; Moralejo, E.; Gutierrez, J. M.; Matias, M. A.
Show abstract
Pierces Disease (PD) is a vector-borne disease caused by the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa, which poses a significant threat to grapevines worldwide. Despite its importance, the risk of future PD establishment in Europe remains unclear due to previous incomplete methodologies followed by conflicting results. Here we present a comprehensive approach considering the compound effect of climate change on the pathosystem. Within the general trend of progressively increasing PD risk, we identified the +3{o}C scenario as a turning point for potential spreading beyond Mediterranean regions, representing a serious risk for French and Italian viticulture. Our innovative methodology reveals PD risk as a multi-factor multi-scale process, showing contrasting spatial patterns and different risk velocities across regions, as well as a high timing uncertainty. By overcoming previous limitations, our findings contribute to a better understanding of the potential spread of PD in Europe, supporting informed decision-making for disease management and prevention.
Matching journals
The top 6 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- Estimating the effect of social inequalities in the mitigation of COVID-19 across communities in Santiago de Chile 92%
- Evaluating the impact of curfews and other measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in French Guiana 92%
- Using drivers and transmission pathways to identify SARS-like coronavirus spillover risk hotspots 91%
Similar papers in this journal
- Climatic factors influence COVID-19 outbreak as revealed by worldwide mortality 90%
- Containing the Spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Meteorological Factors and Control Strategies 89%
- Duration of SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding in faeces as a parameter for wastewater-based epidemiology: Re-analysis of patient data using a shedding dynamics model 89%
Similar papers in this journal
- Suitability of anthrax ( Bacillus anthracis ) in the Black Sea basin through the scope of distribution modelling 93%
- Assessing early detection ability through spatial arrangements in environmental surveillance for poliovirus: a simulation-based study 93%
- Climate drivers of malaria at its southern fringe in the Americas 92%
Similar papers in this journal
- Emerging strains of watermelon mosaic virus in Southeastern France: model-based estimation of the dates and places of introduction 93%
- Colder and drier winter conditions are associated with greater SARS-CoV-2 transmission: a regional study of the first epidemic wave in north-west hemisphere countries 93%
- Evidence that recent climatic changes have expanded the potential geographical range of the Mediterranean fruit fly 92%
Similar papers in this journal
- Intersecting vulnerabilities: Climatic and demographic contributions to future population exposure to Aedes-borne viruses in the United States 92%
- Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Ninos 90%
- Dengue transmission risk in a changing climate: Bangladesh could experience a longer dengue fever season in the future 89%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.