What is the forecasted prevalence and incidence of long-term conditions in Wales: a rapid evidence map

It is becoming apparent that the NHS will face many issues in years to come due to the growth of ageing population in relation to the working age population alongside the increase in multimorbidity and persistent health inequalities, particularly for preventable illness. This has implications to how healthcare and health systems are delivered, and how the NHS will need to adapt to meet the increasing demand that this places on healthcare services. This rapid evidence map reports forecasted prevalence and incidence data across a range of long -term conditions in Wales to support planning about how best to organise and finance care for the increasing population with long-term conditions over the next 10 years. The findings by conditions include: atrial fibrillation, cancer, cardiovascular diseases, peripheral vascular disease, stroke, dementia, diabetes, heart failure, hypertension, mental illness, and multi-morbidities. Three risk factors for long term conditions were also included, i.e., poor diet/nutrition, obesity, and smoking. The review included evidence from 2012 to March 2023 Implications for policy and practiceResults show which long-term conditions are projected to increase over 10 years or more. Further preventive interventions through behavioural science approaches, with increased investment, should be considered to mitigate the rising prevalence of several preventable conditions. Smoking, excessive drinking and obesity are candidates for targeted preventive work, especially in areas of deprivation, to lessen health inequalities. Further research is needed for some conditions, and to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the burden of these conditions in Wales. Earlier diagnosis by genetic and genomic technologies and enabling lifestyle changes or by more cost-effective home care could reduce NHS costs of some long-term conditions.