Sub-clinical triiodothyronine levels predict health, demographic, and socioeconomic outcomes

The Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Thyroid (HPT) axis is fundamental to human biology, exerting central control over energy expenditure, metabolic rate, and body temperature. However, the consequences of "normal" physiologic HPT-axis variation in non-clinical populations are poorly understood. Using nationally-representative data from the 2007-2012 NHANES, we explore relationships with demographics, mortality, and socio-economic factors. We find much larger variation across age in free T3 than other HPT-axis hormones. T3 and T4 have opposite effects on mortality: free T3 is inversely related and free T4 is positively related with likelihood of death. Free T3 and household income are negatively related, particularly at lower incomes. Finally, free T3 among older adults is associated with labor both on the extensive margin (unemployment) and intensive margin (hours worked). Physiologic TSH/T4 explain only 1% of T3 variation, and neither are appreciably correlated to socio-economic outcomes. Taken together, our data suggest an unappreciated complexity and non-linearity of the HPT-axis signaling cascade broadly such that TSH and T4 may not be accurate surrogates of free T3. Furthermore, we find that sub-clinical variation in the HPT-axis effector hormone T3 is an important and overlooked factor linking socio-economic forces, human biology, and aging.