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Estimations of SARS-CoV-2 endemic characteristics

Nesteruk, I.

2023-01-26 epidemiology
10.1101/2023.01.24.23284980 medRxiv
Show abstract

The fourth year of the COVID-19 pandemic without decreasing trends in the global numbers of new daily cases, high numbers of circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants and re-infections together with pessimistic predictions for the Omicron wave duration force studies about the endemic stage of the disease. The global trends were illustrated with the use the accumulated numbers of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, the percentages of fully vaccinated people and boosters and the results of calculation of the effective reproduction number provided by Johns Hopkins University. The modified SIR model showed the presence of unsteady equilibrium. The global numbers of new daily cases will range between 300 thousand and one million, daily deaths - between one and 3.3 thousand.

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"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.