Tri-light Warning System for Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients]{A Tri-light Warning System for Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients: Credibility-based Risk Stratification under Data Shift
Xu, C.; Xu, Q.; Liu, L.; Zhou, M.; Xing, Z.; Zhou, Z.; Zhou, C.; Li, X.; Wang, R.; Wu, Y.; Wang, J.; Zhang, L. J.; Zhan, X.; Gevaert, O.; Lu, G.
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OBJECTIVETo develop a tri-light warning system for the early warning of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) and stratification of patients. MATERIALS AND METHODSThe system extracts radiomic features from CT images and integrates clinical record information to output a prediction probability and credibility of each prediction. It classifies patients in the general ward into red (high risk), yellow (uncertain risk), and green (low risk) labels. The system was tested using a multi-center cohort of 8,721 patients. RESULTSThe system demonstrated reliability and performance validation under data distribution shifts, and was applicable to both the original strain and variant strains of COVID-19. DISCUSSIONThe tri-light warning system has the potential to improve patient stratification performance and identify epidemiological risks early, thus allowing for timely treatment and optimization of medical resource allocation. CONCLUSIONThe tri-light warning system based on conformal prediction is a reliable and effective method for the early warning and stratification of COVID-19 patients.
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