Prediction of Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness in adult populations and in clinically-vulnerable subgroups
Volkov, O.; Borozdenkova, S.; Gray, A.
Show abstract
Predictions of Covid vaccine effectiveness could support rapid and effective measures against the pandemic. Our modelling boosts the accuracy and applications of these predictions, especially to subgroups. We model the symptomatic effectiveness of Comirnaty or Vaxzevria with 50% neutralising antibody titres from a large UK immunogenicity study and with up to 68 effectiveness estimates from 23 vaccine studies. We predicted effectiveness in adult populations, age and disease subgroups, with 45% (95% CI: 27-63) predicted against Omicron BA.1 for Comirnaty boosters in haemodialysis patients. Prediction errors for two Comirnaty doses in adults were 1.9%, 2.6% and 0.4%, against the Alpha, Beta and Delta variants, versus 3.6%, 28% and 8.7% with a state-of-the-art alternative; and for Vaxzevria, 1.1% and 0.7% against Alpha and Delta, versus 18% and 20.4%. Identical titres implied between 18% (95% CI: 1-33) and 31% (95% CI: 13-50) lower Comirnaty effectiveness against Omicron BA.1 than Delta.
Matching journals
The top 4 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
- Predicting immune protection against outcomes of infectious disease from population-level effectiveness data with application to COVID-19 97%
- Cost-effectiveness of routine COVID-19 adult vaccination programmes in England 96%
- Interpreting vaccine efficacy trial results for infection and transmission 95%
Similar papers in this journal
- Predicting antibody kinetics and duration of protection against SARS-CoV-2 following vaccination from sparse serological data 96%
- Evaluating targeted COVID-19 vaccination strategies with agent-based modeling 95%
- Graph-Theoretical Formulation of the Generalized Epitope-based Vaccine Design Problem 94%
Similar papers in this journal
- Spatial analysis of COVID-19 booster vaccine uptake in Scotland, and projection of future distributions 95%
- The potential impact of Omicron and future variants of concern on SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and public health burden: a modelling study 94%
- Adherence and sustainability of interventions informing optimal control against COVID-19 pandemic 92%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.