Genomic accordions may hold the key to Monkeypox Clade IIb's increased transmissibility

The currently expanding monkeypox epidemic is caused by a subclade IIb descendant of a monkeypox virus (MPXV) lineage traced back to Nigeria in 1971. In contrast to monkeypox cases caused by clade I and subclade IIa MPXV, the prognosis of current cases is generally favorable, but person-to-person transmission is much more efficient. MPXV evolution is driven by selective pressure from hosts and loss of virus-host interacting genes. However, there is no satisfactory genetic explanation using single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for the observed increased MPXV transmissibility. We hypothesized that key genomic changes may occur in the genomes low-complexity regions (LCRs), which are highly challenging to sequence and have been dismissed as uninformative. Using a combination of highly sensitive techniques, we determined a first high-quality MPXV genome sequence of a representative of the current epidemic with LCRs resolved at unprecedented accuracy. This effort revealed significant variation in short-tandem repeats within LCRs. We demonstrate that LCR entropy in the MPXV genome is significantly higher than that of SNPs and that LCRs are not randomly distributed. In silico analyses indicate that expression, translation, stability, or function of MPXV orthologous poxvirus genes (OPGs) 153, 204, and 208 could be affected in a manner consistent with the established "genomic accordion" evolutionary strategies of orthopoxviruses. Consequently, we posit that genomic studies focusing on phenotypic MPXV clade-/subclade-/lineage-/strain differences should change their focus to the study of LCR variability instead of SNP variability.