Modeling the USA Late Winter 2021 and Spring 2022 CoVID-19 Resurgences

Every USA wave, including this latest Spring 2022 Resurgence has been successfully modeled using: O_FD O_INLINEFIG[Formula 1]C_INLINEFIGM_FD(1)C_FD with N (t) being the total number of new CoVID-19 cases above a prior baseline, and tR setting the pandemic wave doubling time tdbl = tR (In 2). The parameters {S ;{delta} o} measure mitigation efforts among the uninfected population. Here, {S > 0} is associated with Social Distancing and vaccinations ; while {{delta}o > 0} is associated with mask-wearing, which results in faster [Formula] post-peak drop-offs. The predicted pandemic wave end is when the calculated N (t) stops increasing. The USA Winter 2021 Resurgence resulted in fewer Omicron CoVID-19 cases than calculated in our prior medrxiv.org preprint*, due to an increased{delta} o component, which gives [~]3/11/22 as the predicted wave end. A relatively quiet CoVID-19 period ensued until [~]4/16/22, when a new Omicron variant caused the present Spring 2022 CoVID-19 resurgence. The recent CoVID-19 waves have decreasing tR values, with the Spring 2022 tR{approx} 3.55 days (tdbl {approx} 2.46 days) value being the shortest since the initial 2020 pandemic, indicating increasingly infectious variants. The Winter 2021 and the present Spring 2022 CoVID-19 resurgences have identical S {approx} 0.043 / day values, but the{delta} o > 0 mask-wearing parameter decreased from{delta} o {approx} 3. 14 x 10-3/ day to{delta} o {approx} 1. 145 x 10-3/ day, giving the Spring 2022 wave a longer tail, and an expected end date of 8/25/22, with these wave totals: O_FD O_INLINEFIG[Formula 2]C_INLINEFIGM_FD(2)C_FD When all the USA CoVID-19 waves are combined, it gives: O_FD O_INLINEFIG[Formula 3]C_INLINEFIGM_FD(3)C_FD assuming no future CoVID-19 Resurgences (with 5 Figures). *(10.1101_2022.02.04.22270491)