Genomic and bioclimatic diversity of Ethiopian barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) landraces reveals vulnerability to climate change

The climate crisis is impacting agroecosystems of the global South, threatening the food security of millions of smallholder farmers. Understanding the effect of current and future climates on crop agrobiodiversity may guide breeding efforts and adaptation strategies to sustain the livelihoods of farmers cropping in challenging conditions. Here, we combine a genomic and climatic characterization of a large collection of traditional barley varieties from Ethiopia, key to food security in local smallholder farming systems. We employ data-driven approaches to characterize their local adaptation to current and future climates and identify barley genomic regions with potential for breeding for local adaptation. We used a sequencing approach to genotype at high- density 436 barley varieties, finding that their genetic diversity can be traced back to geography and environmental diversity in Ethiopia. We integrate this information in a genome-wide association study targeting phenology traits measured in common garden experiments as well as climatic features at sampling points of traditional varieties, describing 106 genomic loci associated with local adaptation. We then employ a machine learning approach to link barley genomic diversity with climate variation, estimating barley genomic offset in future climate scenarios. Our data show that the genomic characterization of traditional agrobiodiversity coupled with climate modelling may contribute to the mitigation of the climate crisis effects on smallholder farming systems.