A re-examination of the impact of COVD-19 deaths on the computation of average life expectancy
Rao, A.; Krantz, S. G.; Swanson, D. A.
Show abstract
It is natural to question the impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy. However, a newborn during the 2020-2021 period need not experience the same level of adult mortality found in 2020-2021 because there may be zero COVID-19 related deaths when the newborn reaches adulthood. Thus, life expectancy lost due to COVID-19 cannot be found simply by incorporating excess deaths due to COVID-19 and re-doing the life table computations because: (1) we know that the COVID-19 deaths need not occur every year for the next 20-25 years; and (2) once an adult, a newborn in 2021/2022 need not experience the same mortality rate that current middle and older aged COVID-19 patients experience. Using U.S. data as an example, we estimate an average of 29.68 years of life was lost to those aged 18-64 who died from COVID-19 in the U.S., noting that 74 % of the reported deaths of 18-64 occurred among 50-64 years and 10 % below 40 years. Instead of computing life expectancy years lost due to COVID-19, we recommend computing life years lost due to COVID-19.
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