Epidemiology study of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in India, the first and second wave

Background and objectivesSARS-CoV-2 has wrecked the world for the past 17 months. India has been hit by the second wave of the virus which has been characterized by new symptoms. This study focuses on the pattern of infection over the last 13 months utilizing epidemic model to predict course of the pandemic. Material and methodsThe data was collected from covid19india.org to perform analysis based on age and gender distribution. Statistical analysis was performed to determine the relation between confirmed and recovered cases while SIR epidemic model was used to determine the course of the pandemic in the country and the changes that have occurred from the first to the second wave. Results and discussionsResults show infectivity rate to be higher in ages 20-50 while mortality is higher in 50-80 age group while 60-70% of the infected population are males. Each of the 9 states have their own salient feature curves of infection. It was seen that the confirmed and recovered cases are more correlated at present than previous wave. The curves for both waves show a polynomial distribution while the reproduction number data shows an almost U-shaped curve indicating decrease of infection spread in the middle phase when the first wave was on a decline before picking up again owing to the second wave. Interpretations and conclusionThe gender and age distribution shows that although lower age group is more infected, mortality is high for higher age groups, on the other hand males are more prone to the infection. The statistical analysis shows the nature of spread of the disease, the data of which is quantified by the SIR model based study.