COVID-19 vaccination, risk-compensatory behaviours, and social contacts in four countries in the UK
Buckell, J.; Jones, J.; Matthews, P. C.; Diamond, I.; Rourke, E.; Studley, R.; Cook, D.; Walker, A. S.; Pouwels, K. B.; The COVID-19 Infection Survey Team,
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The physiological effects of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) are well documented, yet the behavioural effects are largely unknown. Risk compensation suggests that gains in personal safety, as a result of vaccination, are offset by increases in risky behaviour, such as socialising, commuting and working outside the home. This is potentially problematic because transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is driven by contacts, which could be amplified by vaccine-related risk compensation behaviours. Here, we show that behaviours were overall unrelated to personal vaccination, but - adjusting for variation in mitigation policies - were responsive to the level of vaccination in the wider population: individuals in the UK were risk compensating when rates of vaccination were rising. This effect was observed across four nations of the UK, each of which varied policies autonomously.
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