Covid-19 Epidemic Prediction in France: the Multimodal Case.
Quadrat, J.-P.
Show abstract
In two previous papers we have proposed models to estimate the Covid-19 epidemic when the number of daily positive cases has a bell shaped form that we call a mode. We have observed that each Covid variant produces this type of epidemic shape at a different moment, resulting in a multimodal epidemic shape. We will show in this document that each mode can still be estimated with models described in the two previous papers provides we replace the cumulated number of positive cases y by the cumulated number of positive cases reduced by a parameter P to be estimated. Therefore denoting z the logarithm of y -P, z follows approximately the differential equation [z] = b -azr where a, b, r have also to be estimated from the observed data. We will show the obtained predictions on the four French modes April, November 2020, May and September 2021. The comparison between the prediction obtained before the containment decisions made by the French government and the observed data afterwards suggests the inefficiency of the epidemic lockdowns.
Matching journals
The top 10 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
- Model Based Estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 Immunization Level in Austria and Consequences for Herd Immunity Effects 97%
- Ranking the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to Counter COVID-19 in UK Universities with Vaccinated Population 96%
- Distribution of Incubation Period of COVID-19 in the Canadian Context: Modeling and Computational Study 96%
Similar papers in this journal
- Comorbidity Analysis: Overlapping Semicircles With Wigner Law And Random Matrix Theory 96%
- Random-walk, agent-level pandemic simulation (RAW-ALPS) for analyzing effects of different lockdown measures 95%
- Spatial autocorrelation and the dynamics of the mean center of COVID-19 infections in Lebanon 95%
Similar papers in this journal
- Mathematical Modeling of Multiple Pathways in Colorectal Carcinogenesis using Dynamical Systems with Kronecker Structure 95%
- Differential Methods for Assessing Sensitivity in Biological Models 94%
- On the impact of re-mating and residual fertility on the Sterile Insect Technique efficacy: case study with the medfly, Ceratitis capitata 94%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.