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Consequences of COVID-19 vaccine allocation inequity in Chicago

Zeng, S.; Pelzer, K. M.; Gibbons, R. D.; Peek, M. E.; Parker, W. F.

2021-09-23 health policy
10.1101/2021.09.22.21263984 medRxiv
Show abstract

During Chicagos initial COVID-19 vaccine rollout, the city disproportionately allocated vaccines to zip codes with high incomes and predominantly White populations. However, the impact of this inequitable distribution on COVID-19 outcomes is unknown. This observational study determined the association between zip-code level vaccination rate and COVID-19 mortality in residents of 52 Chicago zip codes. After controlling for age distribution and recovery from infection, a 10% higher vaccination rate by March 28, 2021, was associated with a 39% lower relative risk of death during the peak of the spring wave of COVID-19. Using a difference-in-difference analysis, Chicago could have prevented an estimated 72% of deaths in the least vaccinated quartile of the city (vaccination rates of 17.8 - 26.9%) if it had had the same vaccination rate as the most vaccinated quartile (39.9 - 49.3%). Inequitable vaccine allocation in Chicago likely exacerbated existing racial disparities in COVID-19 mortality.

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