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Dynamics of the Third wave, modelling COVID-19 pandemic with an outlook towards India

Basak, A.; Rahaman, S.; Guha, A.; Sanyal, T.

2021-08-24 epidemiology
10.1101/2021.08.17.21262193 medRxiv
Show abstract

Since 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has devastated human civilization throughout the earth. The pandemic is returning in different waves because of constant changes in the genetic components of the virus. Had we been able to predict the nature and timing of these waves earlier, numerous lives could, in essence, have been saved. It is evident that the situation has spiraled out of control in several countries for want of proper preventive measures. In this article, we described a comprehensive mathematical approach to understand the nature of the pandemic waves. Also, we determined the probable timing of the third wave that will help the concerned government(s) to take the necessary steps to better prepare for the unforeseen situation.

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