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Mapping First to Second wave transition of covid19 Indian data via Sigmoid function and prediction of Third wave

MONDAL, S.; Ghosh, S.

2021-07-14 epidemiology
10.1101/2021.07.11.21260325 medRxiv
Show abstract

Understanding first and second wave of covid19 Indian data along with its few selective states, we have realized a transition between two Sigmoid pattern with twice larger growth parameter and maximum values of cumulative data. As a result of those transition, time duration of second wave shrink to half of that first wave with four times larger peak values. It is really interesting that the facts can be easily understood by simple algebraic expressions of Sigmoid function. After understanding the crossing zone between first and second wave curves, a third wave Sigmoid pattern is guessed.

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