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Taiwan on track to end third COVID-19 community outbreak

Nordling, T. E. M.; Rain, Y.-H.

2021-06-27 epidemiology
10.1101/2021.06.20.21259178 medRxiv
Show abstract

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic on December 31st, 2019, with the World Health Organization being notified of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan (China), Taiwan has successfully ended two COVID-19 community outbreaks. For 19 days, the third community outbreak has now been successfully suppressed, putting Taiwan on path to end it too around Aug. 16th based on our forecast using an exponential model. Since May 28th the 7-day average of reported confirmed infected, which peaked at 593, has been falling to 204 on June 16th and the 7-day average of reported suspected and excluded cases increased to above 25 000. Resulting in a decrease in the ratio of the 7-day average of local & unknown confirmed to suspected cases-the identified control variable-to less than one third of its peak value. The later is a hallmark of working contact tracing, which together with testing and isolation of infected are the keys to ending the community outbreak.

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The top 11 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
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"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.