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The COVID-19 pandemic storm in India subsides, but the calm is still far away

Nesteruk, I.

2021-06-03 epidemiology
10.1101/2021.06.01.21258143 medRxiv
Show abstract

In May 2021, the number of new COVID-19 patients in India began to decline, as predicted by the generalized SIR-model (susceptible-infected-removed). The calculations of the final size of this pandemic wave and its duration probably were too pessimistic. New SIR simulations with the use of fresher datasets are necessary in order to update the predictions and to calculate the difference between the registered (laboratory-confirmed) and real number of cases.

Matching journals

The top 9 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
PLOS ONE
● 5266 papers in training set
Top 10%
18.7%
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2
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals
○ 32 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
8.0%
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3
Scientific Reports
○ 3612 papers in training set
Top 19%
4.9%
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4
Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics
○ 11 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
4.4%
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5
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● 23 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
4.1%
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6
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○ 10 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
3.4%
7
Infectious Disease Modelling
○ 54 papers in training set
Top 0.5%
3.3%
8
JMIRx Med
◐ 32 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
3.3%
9
Cureus
○ 68 papers in training set
Top 1%
3.3%
50% of probability mass above
10
BMC Research Notes
○ 33 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
2.1%
11
Biomedical Signal Processing and Control
○ 22 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
1.7%
12
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
○ 128 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.7%
13
PLOS Computational Biology
● 1863 papers in training set
Top 14%
1.7%
14
Heliyon
○ 152 papers in training set
Top 4%
1.5%
15
Epidemiology and Infection
◐ 89 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.5%
16
The European Physical Journal Plus
○ 13 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
1.4%
17
Applied Sciences
○ 25 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
1.4%
18
Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence
○ 20 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
1.1%
19
Mathematical Biosciences
○ 49 papers in training set
Top 0.9%
1.1%
20
Environmental Research
○ 49 papers in training set
Top 0.8%
1.1%
21
BioMed Research International
○ 28 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.1%
22
Frontiers in Public Health
○ 148 papers in training set
Top 5%
1.1%
23
Informatics in Medicine Unlocked
○ 22 papers in training set
Top 0.9%
1.1%
24
Mathematics
○ 11 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
1.0%
25
F1000Research
○ 88 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.0%
26
Frontiers in Physics
○ 21 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
1.0%
27
Royal Society Open Science
● 214 papers in training set
Top 5%
1.0%
28
COVID
○ 14 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
0.9%
29
Viruses
○ 332 papers in training set
Top 4%
0.9%
30
Computers in Biology and Medicine
○ 128 papers in training set
Top 5%
0.6%

"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.