Forecasting the Epidemiological Impact of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): Pre-vaccination Era

BackgroundDuring this pandemic, many studies have been published on the virology, diagnosis, prevention, and control of the novel coronavirus. However, fewer studies are currently available on the quantitative future epidemiological impacts. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to forecast the COVID-19 morbidities and associated-mortalities among the top 20 countries with the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally prior to vaccination intervention. MethodWe conducted a secondary data analysis of the prospective geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases data worldwide as of 10 April 2020. The historical data was forecasted using Exponential-Smoothing to detect seasonality patterns and confidence intervals surrounding each predicted value in which 95 percent of the future points are expected to fall based on the forecast. ResultsThe total mean forecasted cases and deaths were 99,823 and 8,801. Interestingly, the US has the highest forecasted cases, deaths, and percentage cases-deaths ratio of 45,338, 2 358, and 5.20% respectively. China has the lowest cases, deaths, and percentage cases-deaths ratio -267, -2, and 0.75% respectively. In addition, France has the highest forecasted percentage cases-deaths ratio of 26.40% with forecasted cases, and deaths of 6,246, and 1,649 respectively. ConclusionOur study revealed the possibility of higher COVID-19 morbidities and associated-mortalities worldwide.