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Estimating the spreading and dominance of SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7) across Europe

Gozzi, N.; Chinazzi, M.; Davis, J. T.; Mu, K.; Pastore y Piontti, A.; Ajelli, M.; Perra, N.; Vespignani, A.

2021-02-23 epidemiology
10.1101/2021.02.22.21252235 medRxiv
Show abstract

We develop a two strain, age-structured, compartmental model to assess the spreading potential of the B.1.1.7 variant across several European metropolitan areas and countries. The model accounts for B.1.1.7 introductions from the UK and different locations, as well as local mitigation policies in the time period 2020/09 - 2021/02. In the case of an increase of transmissibility of 50%, the B.1.1.7 variant has the potential to become dominant in all investigated areas by the end of March 2021.

Matching journals

The top 7 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
PLOS Computational Biology
● 1863 papers in training set
Top 3%
10.6%
Similar papers in this journal
2
Eurosurveillance
● 83 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
9.6%
Similar papers in this journal
3
Swiss Medical Weekly
● 15 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
7.9%
Similar papers in this journal
4
Scientific Reports
○ 3612 papers in training set
Top 10%
6.7%
Similar papers in this journal
5
Nature Communications
○ 5641 papers in training set
Top 25%
6.2%
Similar papers in this journal
6
PLOS ONE
● 5266 papers in training set
Top 27%
5.5%
7
Epidemics
○ 116 papers in training set
Top 0.5%
4.5%
50% of probability mass above
8
Communications Medicine
○ 113 papers in training set
Top 0.5%
4.0%
9
BMC Infectious Diseases
○ 133 papers in training set
Top 1%
2.4%
10
Epidemiology and Infection
◐ 89 papers in training set
Top 0.8%
2.4%
11
BMC Public Health
○ 158 papers in training set
Top 2%
2.4%
12
BMC Medicine
○ 176 papers in training set
Top 2%
2.1%
13
Viruses
○ 332 papers in training set
Top 2%
2.1%
14
International Journal of Infectious Diseases
○ 129 papers in training set
Top 1%
2.1%
15
Journal of Clinical Medicine
○ 97 papers in training set
Top 2%
2.1%
16
Royal Society Open Science
● 214 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.7%
17
International Journal of Epidemiology
◐ 88 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.3%
18
Frontiers in Public Health
○ 148 papers in training set
Top 4%
1.3%
19
European Journal of Epidemiology
○ 43 papers in training set
Top 0.6%
1.1%
20
Journal of The Royal Society Interface
● 235 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.1%
21
BMC Medical Research Methodology
○ 47 papers in training set
Top 1.0%
1.1%
22
Infectious Disease Modelling
○ 54 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.0%
23
Vaccine
○ 203 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.9%
24
eLife
● 5828 papers in training set
Top 67%
0.8%
25
Vaccines
○ 198 papers in training set
Top 4%
0.8%
26
Emerging Infectious Diseases
● 105 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.8%
27
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
● 72 papers in training set
Top 1%
0.8%
28
COVID
○ 14 papers in training set
Top 0.6%
0.6%

"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.