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The impacts of COVID-19 vaccine timing, number of doses, and risk prioritization on mortality in the US

Wang, X.; Du, Z.; Johnson, K.; Fox, S.; Lachmann, M.; McLellan, J. S.; Meyers, L. A.

2021-01-20 epidemiology
10.1101/2021.01.18.21250071 medRxiv
Show abstract

As COVID-19 vaccination begins worldwide, policymakers face critical trade-offs. Using a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission, we find that timing of the rollout is expected to have a substantially greater impact on mortality than risk-based prioritization and uptake and that prioritizing first doses over second doses may be life saving.

Matching journals

The top 6 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
Vaccine
○ 203 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
12.4%
Similar papers in this journal
2
Nature Communications
○ 5641 papers in training set
Top 16%
11.6%
Similar papers in this journal
3
Science
● 477 papers in training set
Top 0.6%
10.8%
Similar papers in this journal
4
Nature Human Behaviour
○ 95 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
5.4%
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5
PLOS Medicine
● 110 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
5.3%
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6
eLife
● 5828 papers in training set
Top 26%
4.7%
50% of probability mass above
7
Nature Medicine
○ 125 papers in training set
Top 0.5%
4.3%
8
BMC Medicine
○ 176 papers in training set
Top 0.7%
4.2%
9
Clinical Infectious Diseases
◐ 235 papers in training set
Top 0.8%
3.9%
10
Science Advances
● 1243 papers in training set
Top 16%
2.3%
11
The Lancet Infectious Diseases
○ 73 papers in training set
Top 0.6%
1.7%
12
Communications Medicine
○ 113 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.7%
13
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
● 2444 papers in training set
Top 28%
1.7%
14
Epidemics
○ 116 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.6%
15
JAMA Network Open
● 130 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.6%
16
American Journal of Epidemiology
◐ 67 papers in training set
Top 0.8%
1.5%
17
PLOS ONE
● 5266 papers in training set
Top 49%
1.5%
18
Scientific Reports
○ 3612 papers in training set
Top 59%
1.4%
19
Science Translational Medicine
● 127 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.3%
20
The Lancet Regional Health - Americas
○ 22 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
1.1%
21
Vaccines
○ 198 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.1%
22
PLOS Computational Biology
● 1863 papers in training set
Top 17%
1.1%
23
Epidemiology
○ 32 papers in training set
Top 0.5%
1.0%
24
Nature
○ 645 papers in training set
Top 10%
1.0%
25
BMC Public Health
○ 158 papers in training set
Top 5%
0.8%
26
International Journal of Epidemiology
◐ 88 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.8%
27
New England Journal of Medicine
● 52 papers in training set
Top 0.6%
0.8%
28
PLOS Biology
● 486 papers in training set
Top 12%
0.8%
29
PLOS Global Public Health
● 344 papers in training set
Top 8%
0.8%
30
The Lancet Regional Health - Europe
○ 33 papers in training set
Top 0.7%
0.6%

"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.