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Brazilian model estimation for SARS-CoV-2 peak contagion (BMESPC): first and second wave

Asai, G.; Kuroiva, A.; Terra, M. L.

2021-01-04 public and global health
10.1101/2021.01.02.20248940 medRxiv
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With newer data for SARS-CoV-2 and entering the second wave of contagion required the improvement of the forecasting model, structuring its model to forecast the peak of the first and second contagion wave in Brazil. The Brazilian model estimation for SARS-CoV-2 peak contagion (BMESPC) was structured, capable of estimating the peak of contagion for SARS-CoV-2 in the first and second waves, as the main objective of this work. Using the BMESPC model, it was possible to estimate, with a certain reliability degree, the peak of contagion for the first and second waves in Brazil, with one day difference from the real to the forecast. While at the state level, the calculated confidence interval proved to be more accurate. In this way, it is possible to use BMESPC to forecast the peak of contagion for several regions, provided that the necessary structure and calibration are respected.

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"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.