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On the anti-correlation between COVID-19 infection rate and natural UV light in the UK

Blum, A.; Nicolaou, C.; Henghes, B.; Lahav, O.

2020-11-30 public and global health
10.1101/2020.11.28.20240242 medRxiv
Show abstract

While it is well established that the rate of COVID-19 infections can be suppressed by social distancing, environmental effects may also affect it. We consider the hypothesis that natural Ultra-Violet (UV) light is reducing COVID-19 infections by enhancing human immunity through increasing levels of Vitamin-D and Nitric Oxide or by suppressing the virus itself. We focus on the United Kingdom (UK), by examining daily COVID-19 infections (F) and UV Index (UVI) data from 23 March 2020 to 10 March 2021. We find an intriguing empirical anti-correlation between log10(F) and log10(UVI) with a correlation coefficient of -0.934 from 11 May 2020 (when the first UK lockdown ended) to 10 March 2021. The anti-correlation may reflect causation with other factors which are correlated with the UVI. We advocate that UVI should be added as a parameter in modelling the pattern of COVID-19 infections and deaths. We started quantifying such correlations in other countries and regions.

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