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Sars-Cov-2 in Argentina: Following Virus Spreading using Granger Causality

Larrosa, J. M. C.

2020-10-08 infectious diseases
10.1101/2020.10.06.20207993 medRxiv
Show abstract

There is a debate in Argentina on how COVID-19 outbreak in one district ends up infecting its neighbor districts. This contribution aims to use tools of time series analysis for understanding processes of contagious through regions. I use VAR and Granger causality for testing neighbor spreading via sequential rate of contagion. Results show that in the case of Argentina, contagion began in the capital city of Buenos Aires and then spread to its hinterland via specific districts. Once interior districts were infected a positive feedback dynamics emerge creating regions of high reproducibility of the virus where interventions may be focus in the very near future. This specific use of time series analysis may provide a tool for tracing infectiousness along regions that may help to anticipate infection and then for intervening for reducing the problems derived by the disease.

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