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Modeling the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 immunity waning, antigenic drifting, and population serology patterns
2020-09-11
epidemiology
Title + abstract only
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Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 can result from either waning immunity, a drift in the virus that escapes previously stimulated immunity, or both. The nature of such reinfection risks will affect the choice of control tactics and vaccines. We constructed an SIR transmission model of waning and drifting that can be fitted to cross-neutralization serological data. In this model, waning occurs in individuals who have recovered from previous infections while drifting occurs during transmission to a prev...
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