Groundbreaking predictions about COVID-19 pandemic duration, number of infected and dead: A novel mathematical approach never used in epidemiology

Hundreds of predictions about the duration of the pandemic and the number of infected and dead have been carried out using traditional epidemiological tools (i.e. SIR, SIRD models, etc.) or new procedures of big-data analysis. However, the extraordinary complexity of the disease and the lack of knowledge about the pandemic (i.e. R value, mortality rate, etc.) create uncertainty about the accuracy of these estimates. However, several elegant mathematical approaches, based on physics and probability principles, like the Delta-t argument, Lindys Law or the Doomsday principle-Carters catastrophe, which have been successfully applied by scientists to unravel complex phenomena characterized by their great uncertainty (i.e. Human races longevity; How many more humans will be born before extinction) allow predicting parameters of the Covid-19 pandemic. These models predict that the COVID-19 pandemic will hit us until at least September-October 2021, but will likely last until January-September 2022, causing a minimum of 36,000,000 infected and most likely 60,000,000, as well as 1,400,000 dead at best and most likely 2,333,000. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest.