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Dynamic Analysis of Social Distancing Ratio, Isolation Rate and Transmission Coefficient in COVID-19 Epidemic for Many Countries by SIQR Model

Hashiguchi, K.

2020-08-07 infectious diseases
10.1101/2020.08.04.20167882 medRxiv
Show abstract

Recently SIQR model was proposed by Odagaki as the modification of conventional SIR model by adding the term for isolation of infected persons, Q(Quarantined). The exponent{lambda} of the exponential function expressing the number of newly tested positive persons was defined as an linear equation explicitly with three important parameters, transmission coefficient, social distancing ratio x and isolation rate q. In this study, applying this model to the number of positive persons in publicly available database, daily{lambda} values are regression analyzed, and social distancing ratio and isolation rate are derived. Analyses for 7 countries including Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and western countries are performed and determine the dynamic locus of q-x relation on the q-x plane during epidemic propagation. Finally, the remaining parameter, the transmission coefficient is shown to closely relate to the maximum {lambda}, {lambda}max, and {lambda}max (transmission coefficient) is characterized as a specific value for each country. Then, the magnitude of {lambda}max is combined with the value of {lambda}min to influence the total number of new cases until the convergence stage.

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"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.