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Reducing SARS-CoV-2 infectious spreading patterns by removing S and R compartments from SIR model equation

Telles, C. R.

2020-06-17 public and global health
10.1101/2020.06.12.20127498 medRxiv
Show abstract

This research points to the asymptotic instability of SIR model and its variants to predict the behavior of SARS-CoV-2 infection spreading patterns over the population and time aspects. Mainly for the "S" and "R" terms of the equation, the predictive results fail due to confounding environment of variables that sustain the virus contagion within population complex network basis of analysis. While "S" and "R" are not homologous data of analysis, thus with improper topological metrics used in many researches, these terms leads to the asymptotic feature of "I" term as the most stable point of analysis to achieve proper predictive methods. Having in its basis of formulation the policies adopted by countries, "I" therefore presents a stable fixed point orientation in order to be used as a predictive analysis of nearby future patterns of SARS-CoV-2 infection. New metrics using a Weinbull approach for "I" are presented and fixed point orientation (sensitivity of the method) are demonstrated empirically by worldwide statistical data.

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