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On the COVID-19 Pandemic in Indian State of Maharashtra: Forecasting & Effect of different parameters

Avhad, A. S.; Sutar, P. P.; Mohite, O. T.; Pawar, D. V. S.

2020-05-26 public and global health
10.1101/2020.05.23.20111179 medRxiv
Show abstract

This work details the outbreak and factors affecting the spread of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in the Indian state of Maharashtra, which is considered as one of the most massive and deadly pandemic outbreaks. Observational data collected between 14 March 2020 and 4 May 2020 is statistically analyzed to determine the nonlinear behavior of the epidemic. It is followed by validating predicted results with real-time data. Proposed model is further used to obtain statistical summaries in which Grubbs tests for outlier detection have justified high values of evaluation metrics. Outliers are found to be pilot elements in an outbreak under considered region. Statistically, a significant correlation has been observed between dependent and explanatory variables. Transmission pattern of this virus is very much different from the SARS-CoV-1 virus. Key findings of this work will be predominant in maintaining environment conditions at healthcare facilities to reduce transmission rates at these most vulnerable places.

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